tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

MQ 3496 · HPN → ORD

departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 111h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Wednesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16% chance · ±16 pts +1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.3d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ORD?

  1. On time or early
    80%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    6%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    0%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.