Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3496 · HPN → ORD
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
37%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +35 pts in 24h
+35 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
37%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
HPN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.