Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3518 · MIA → EYW
departs 12:10 PM ET · arrives 1:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
74%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +70 pts in 24h
+70 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
74%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 45 kt, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↓
EYW usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 45 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.84 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.