Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3518 · MIA → EYW
departs 12:10 PM ET · arrives 1:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.