Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3528 · DFW → FSM
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
FSM usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.53 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.