Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3528 · DFW → FSM
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.