Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3528 · DFW → FSM
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.