Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3529 · FSM → DFW
departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 11:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at FSM that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
10am departures from FSM are usually not late
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.45 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.