Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3529 · FSM → DFW
departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 11:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at FSM that day
↓
10am departures from FSM are usually not late
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.07 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.