Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3529 · FSM → DFW
departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 11:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at FSM that day
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
FSM (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.