Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3581 · DCA → HSV
departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 5:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
13%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
13%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.