Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3581 · DCA → HSV
departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 5:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at HSV that day
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↓
HSV usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.