Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3638 · CVG → MIA
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 9:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.