Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3638 · CVG → MIA
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 9:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.