Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3778 · DFW → SAT
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 11:52 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
13%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
13%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.56 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.