Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3778 · DFW → SAT
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 11:52 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.