Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3778 · DFW → SAT
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 11:52 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±5 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.