Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3796 · DCA → MSP
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.67 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.