Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3821 · TLH → MIA
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 25%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TLH are often late
↓
TLH usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.