Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3821 · TLH → MIA
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TLH that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
TLH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 9,429 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.