Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3858 · TLH → MIA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
15%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
15%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.18 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,583 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.