Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3858 · TLH → MIA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TLH that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from TLH are usually not late
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.