Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3893 · MIA → JAX
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.