Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3893 · MIA → JAX
departs 8:08 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.