Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3923 · PHX → MEM
departs 6:52 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.