Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3923 · PHX → MEM
departs 6:52 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 28%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MEM that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.