Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3923 · PHX → MEM
departs 6:52 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.