Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3997 · DCA → HSV
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 9:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.