Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3999 · GCK → DFW
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 36%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave GCK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
GCK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GCK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.