Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4095
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 4095 · AUS → DFW
departs 1:56 PM CT · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 46%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.