Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4115
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4115 · MIA → CVG
departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 19%
Thu 10/8 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.