Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4115
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4115 · MIA → CVG
departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.