Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4139
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 4139 · SRQ → MIA
departs 6:22 AM ET · arrives 7:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 8%
Fri 10/9 9%
Sat 10/10 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SRQ are usually not late
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.