Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4183
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 4183 · CAE → ORD
departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 24%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
CAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.