Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4183
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 4183 · CAE → ORD
departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CAE that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
CAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.35 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.