Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4183
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4183 · CAE → ORD
departs 4:58 PM ET · arrives 6:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at CAE that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
CAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CAE (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.54 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.