Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4186 · TYR → DFW
departs 5:05 AM CT · arrives 6:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
31%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
31%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TYR that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
TYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TYR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.87 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.