Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4186 · TYR → DFW
departs 5:05 AM CT · arrives 6:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
TYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TYR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.35 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.