Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4186 · TYR → DFW
departs 5:05 AM CT · arrives 6:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
TYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TYR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.15 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.