Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5104 · BUF → DCA

departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 2:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ BUF is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5104 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?