Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5138 · OKC → DCA

departs 4:51 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±2 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
25%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at OKC that day

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.10 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5138 · OKC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?