Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5138 · OKC → DCA

departs 5:24 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5138 · OKC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?