Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5172 · DCA → DTW

departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

DTW (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5172 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?