Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5173 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

OH 5173 · ECP → PHL

departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 4:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5173 · ECP → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?