Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5173 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5173 · ECP → PHL

departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 4:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.05 in

PHL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,467 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5173 · ECP → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?