Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5236 LANDED 9:51 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

OH 5236 · DCA → HPN

took off 8:58 PM ET · landed 9:51 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at HPN that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HPN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

HPN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5236 · DCA → HPN

Odds over time