Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

OH 5307 · CLT → MSN

departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 3:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5307 · CLT → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?