Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5307 · CLT → MSN

departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 3:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.39 in

MSN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5307 · CLT → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?