Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5513 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5513 · DCA → BNA

departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±2 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DCA that day

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BNA that day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

BNA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5513 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?