Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 4016 · AUS → MSY
departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 3:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.